Golden Cross vs. Death Cross: What's the Difference?
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Golden Cross vs. Death Cross: RSI和MACD以在Pocket Option中成功交易策略 An Overview
The use of statistical analysis to make trading decisions is the core of technical analysis. Technical analysts use a ton of data, often in the form of charts, to analyze stocks and markets. At times, the trend lines on these charts curve and cross in ways that form shapes, often given funny names like "cup with handle," "head and shoulders," and "double top." Technical traders learn to recognize these common patterns and what they might portend for the future performance of RSI和MACD以在Pocket Option中成功交易策略 a stock or market.
A golden cross and a death cross are exact opposites. A golden cross indicates a long-term bull market going forward, while a death cross signals a long-term bear market. Both refer to the solid confirmation of a long-term trend by the occurrence of a short-term moving average crossing over a major long-term moving average.
- A golden RSI和MACD以在Pocket Option中成功交易策略 cross suggests a long-term bull market going forward, while a death cross suggests a long-term bear market.
- Either crossover RSI和MACD以在Pocket Option中成功交易策略 is considered more significant when accompanied by high trading volume.
- Once the crossover occurs, the long-term moving average is considered a major support level (in the case of the golden cross) or resistance level (in the instance of the death RSI和MACD以在Pocket Option中成功交易策略 RSI和MACD以在Pocket Option中成功交易策略 cross) for the market from that point forward.
- Either cross may occur as a signal of a trend change, but they more frequently occur as a strong confirmation of a change in trend that has already taken place.
The golden cross occurs when a short-term moving average crosses over RSI和MACD以在Pocket Option中成功交易策略 a major long-term moving average to the upside and is interpreted by analysts and traders as signaling a definitive upward turn in a market. Basically, the short-term average trends up faster RSI和MACD以在Pocket Option中成功交易策略 than the long-term average, until they cross.
There are three stages to a golden cross:
- A downtrend that eventually ends as selling is depleted
- A second stage where the shorter moving average crosses up through the longer moving average
- Finally, the continuing uptrend, hopefully leading to higher prices
Image by Sabrina Jiang © Investopedia 2021
Conversely, a similar downside moving average crossover RSI和MACD以在Pocket Option中成功交易策略 constitutes the death cross and is understood to signal a decisive downturn in a market. The death cross occurs when RSI和MACD以在Pocket Option中成功交易策略 the short-term average trends down and crosses the long-term average, basically going in the opposite direction of the golden cross.
Image by Sabrina Jiang © Investopedia 2021
There is some variation of opinion as to precisely what constitutes this meaningful moving average crossover. Some analysts define it as a crossover of the 100-day moving average by the 50-day moving average; others define it as the crossover of the 200-day average by the 50-day average.
Analysts also watch for the crossover occurring on lower time frame charts as confirmation of a strong, ongoing trend. Regardless of variations in the precise definition or the time frame applied, the term always refers to a short-term moving average crossing over a major long-term moving average.
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在牛市时，通常蓝筹股的强弱指数若是80，便属超买，若是30便属超卖，至于二三线股，强弱指数若是85至90，便属超买，若是20至25，便属超卖。但我们不能硬性地以上述数值，拟定蓝筹股或二三线股是否属于超买或超卖，主要是由于某些股票有自己的一套超买/卖水平，即是，股价反覆的股票，通常超买的 数值较高（90至95)，而视作超卖的数值亦较低（10至15）。至于那些表现较稳定的股票，超买的数值则较低（65至70），超卖的数值较高（35至 40）。因此我们对一只股票采取买/卖行动前，一定要先找出该只股票的超买/超卖水平。至于衡量一只股票的超买/超卖水平，我们可以参考该股票过去12个 月之强弱指标记录。
⑹超买及超卖范围的确定还取决于两个因素。第一是市场的特性，起伏不大的稳定的市场一般可以规定70以上超买， 30以下为超卖。变化比较剧烈的市场可以规定80以上超买，20以下为超卖。第二是计算RSI时所取的时间参数。例如，对于9日RSI，可以规定80以上 为超买，20以下为超卖。对于24日RSI，可以规定70以上为超买，30以下为超卖。应当注意的是，超买或超卖本身并不构成入市的讯号。有时行情变化得 过于迅速，RSI会很快地超出正常范围，这时RSI的超买或超卖往往就失去了其作为出入市警告讯号的作用。例如在牛市初期，RSI往往会很快进入80以上 的区域，并在此区域内停留相当长一段时间，但这并不表示上升行情将要结束。恰恰相反，它是一种强势的表现。只有在牛市未期或熊市当中，超买才是比较可靠的 入市讯号。基于这个原因，一般不宜在RSI一旦进入非正常区域就采取买卖行动。最好是价格本身也发出转向信号时再进行交易。这样就可以避免类似于上面提到 RSI和MACD以在Pocket Option中成功交易策略 的RSI进入超买区但并不立即回到正常区域那样的“陷阱”。在很多情况罡，很好的买卖讯号是：RSI进入超买超卖区，然后又穿过超买或超卖的界线回到正常 区域。不过这里仍然要得到价格方面的确认，才能采取实际的行动。这种确认可以是：
⑻当强弱指标上升而股价反而下跌，或是强弱指标下降而股价反趋上涨，这种情况称之为“背驰”。当RSI在70至80上时，价位破顶而RSI不能破 顶，这就形成了“顶背驰”，而当RSI在30至20下时，价位破底而RSI不能破底就形成了“底背驰”RSI和MACD以在Pocket Option中成功交易策略 RSI和MACD以在Pocket Option中成功交易策略 RSI和MACD以在Pocket Option中成功交易策略 。这种强弱指标与股价变动，产生的背离现象，通常是 被认为市场即将发生重大反转的讯号。
和超买及超卖一样，背驰本身并不构成实际的卖出讯号，它只是说明市场处于弱势。实际的投资决定应当在 价格本身也确认转向之后才作出。虽然在行情确实发生反转的情况下，这个确认过程会使投资者损失一部分利润，可是却可以避免在生情后来并未发生反转的情况下 投资者可能作出的错误的卖出决定。相对地说，这种错误会对投资者造成更大的损失，因为有时候行情会暂时失去动量然后又重新获得动量，而这时价格并不发生大 规模的转向。
商务印书馆《英汉证券投资词典》解释：相对强弱指标名。用单数。英语为：relative strength index；relative strength analysis；strength。经常用作缩写：RSI。由美国人韦尔斯?怀尔德（Welles RSI和MACD以在Pocket Option中成功交易策略 Wilder）发明的技术分析指标，对同一股票价格波动中的平均上升和下跌幅度进行比较。即交易过程中买卖双方势力的相对强弱。指数区间为0－100，若指数达到70以上时，表示超买，投资者应该考虑卖出股票；相反当指数跌至30时，表示市场超卖，投资者可以进货。参见：relative strength；relative strength rank。
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