【对话基金经理】市场波动之下，如何把握成长板块投资机遇？
鲁亚运：比较明确的是我们仍旧可以乐观多一点。原因有两方面，一方面与国内的货币政策息息相关，相较于海外，国内的CPI相对来说是比较温和的通胀，基于这样的前提条件，美联储和欧洲是紧缩的货币政策，不光是加息，还在缩表，这可能是大环境上的区别；反观国内，货币政策、产业政策、财政政策都是一个整体偏宽松的情形，在大环境之下利好资本市场投资，这是第一点。第二点我们能看到下半年的变化，一季度三、四月份股市相对来说比较悲观，原因在于一季度特别是四、五月份受疫情反复影响，对经济压力比较大，而四、五月份经济下行压力大，下半年能看到今年稳增长的措施执行落地之后，很有可能在第三、四季度看到经济的企稳回升，企稳回升会带动国内相关企业的盈利修复，包括A股在内，包括主营业务在大陆港股的上市公司，都是利好公司的盈利修复，这是下半年的看点，我们看三季报或者年报数据披露之后，相信能够被验证，这种情况下我们下半年乐观多一点。
小夏：好的，感谢鲁总的讲解。那咱们再来聊聊大家都很关心的成长板块吧。您认为在过往的历史中，通常是怎样的市场环境下才能有利于成长板块的表现呢？
鲁亚运：在过去几年，尤其是最近一两年时间里，我们发现A股出现反弹的时候，成长板块的表现比较突出，这背后的原因使我们发现一个规律，当市场呈现经济上行、利率下行态势的时候，表现为“中小创”同步上涨，中证500、中证1000、“创”系列指数均有较好表现。当前跟2012年情形有相似之处，2012年下半年，景气度企稳回升，货币信贷环境宽松，通胀水平整体稳定，推高“中小创”风格表现。回到当前，进入到下半年若市场对经济触底回升形成共识并被验证，则创业板指、科创板、中证1000、中证500可能存在阶段性机会。
02
创成长指数的作用有哪些呢？
小夏：好的，通过以上鲁总的讲解，投资者可能也更清楚地了解到了成长板块的突出表现与A股反弹的密切关系。我们的早播间也有不少对成长板块感兴趣的投资者，像鲁总刚刚提到的创业板指、中证1000等代表成长板块的指数，想必大家也不陌生。但小夏今天还要给大家介绍一个指数——创成长指数（指数全称：创业动量成长指数 指数代码：399296），很多投资者可能对这个指数还不是很了解，可以请鲁总给大家科普一下什么是创成长指数吗？
鲁亚运：大家可能想到的成长板块，我觉得可能会第一时间想到投资创业板，无论是买个股还是指数基金，大家能想到创业板是投资A股成长风格的主战场，大家以往都是通过炒股的形式，但是我相信最近2-3年大家有听说ETF这个工具，由于发现炒股不一定能跑赢指数，因此大家的精力从主战场到买ETF做了转变。先说结论，创成长理解成投资创业板的指数工具，创业板即平时听说过创业板指、创业板50指数，大家对创成长可能不是很了解，我们今天借着这个机会给大家介绍是什么创成长，创成长的厉害之处在于创成长指数连续四年跑赢创业板指。从收益角度来看，创成长比创业板有优势，创成长名字中两部分拆解开，一部分是创业板，一部分是成长板块。简单来说，是从目前1000多个创业板个股当中结合两个指标——一个成长性指标，还有一个是动量指标。通常我们去衡量股票或上市公司的成长性好不好，一般会用净利润同比增长和营收同比增长。成长性很好理解，是上市公司的增速好或者成长性比较好；动量理解为弹性，创业板整体又表现为动量越大的个股弹性越大。创成长指数结合市值和成交额，最后从1000多个创业板个股中选择符合高成长和高弹性的50个优质股票指标组成一个成份股。从行业分布来看，都是聚焦于新能源、新材料、高端制造、芯片半导体硬科技的板块，这也是从产业投资的角度来看符合科技创新和绿色升级的发展主线，无论是创业板指还是成份股也好，都是和发展主线契合度比较高，这是我们创成长的基本情况。
03
创成长适合用定投的方式投资吗？
小夏：总结一下，创成长指数聚焦高成长性创业板优质公司，从1000余只创业板个股中，筛选具备高成长、高弹性特征的50只优质股票，相较创业板指具备更大的弹性，收益优势更明显。而上个月，由鲁总管理的创成长ETF（159967）也迎来了三周年，那么，对于投资成长板块、布局创成长指数，鲁总有什么比较好的操作建议吗？
鲁亚运：成长板块表现的特点就是波动比较大，这个情形是板块的客观特征，如果一次性把握不好是不是一个好的时间点，建议以分批或定投方式来参与。还有小伙伴说ETF是比较好的交易工具，很大一批投资者买行业主题创成长ETF，是基于自己对于短线交易能力的信心而进行不断地操作。在这种情况下，还是要满足两个条件，第一点，是要和自己的风险承受能力相匹配，要承受高波动带来的风险；第二点，在坚定看好基础之上，创成长弹性比较大，是比较好的交易工具，创成长ETF交易规则和股票一样，效率很高，每天成交额不小，大家在交易时候能感受到买卖比较顺畅；还有另外一点，我们的创成长ETF目前还在两轮标的当中，借助两轮标的的规则和策略是其一；除此之外是7月份，内地和香港ETF互联互通，有83家境内ETF被纳入标的，我们的创成长ETF在第一批互联互通的标的中，周四北向资金炒股百亿，北向资金以前只能买个股，现在也能直接买ETF。北向资金参与交易变得活跃，北向资金增配，意味着增量资金，以后选ETF在两轮标的中，在互联互通标的中，是市场上关注度比较高、流动性比较好的，通过互联互通筛选比较优质的ETF。
小夏：鲁总刚刚提到了定投这个操作建议，小夏其实也一直和大家说，通过定投来布局ETF是一个比较好的投资方式，那最后一个问题，咱们能请鲁总给咱们早播间的听众提点一下，定投有哪些需要注意的方面吗？
鲁亚运：（1）不要频繁切换产品，这样和定投的本质就相违背了。（2）特别是在震荡行情里，确实有短期的浮亏情况，在浮亏时候坚持定投，这样筹码成本越来越低，市场反弹的时候回本时间便会加快。（3）大家在定投的时候可以做略微调整，智能定投，估值高的时候减少定投金额，估值低的时候增加定投金额，正确的做法是在下跌的过程中坚持定投，甚至做到越低估买入越多。
500成长ETF
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S&P 500 Snaps 4-Week Winning Streak As Investors Anticipate Higher Interest Rates
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) broke a four-week winning streak this week as the latest commentary from the Federal Reserve suggests investors can expect aggressive interest rate hikes to continue.
On Wednesday, the Fed released minutes from its policy-setting meeting in July that revealed the central bank is prepared to continue raising interest rates until inflation subsides substantially. The bond market is pricing in another rate hike of at least 0.5% in September.
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On Thursday, the National Association of Realtors reported existing U.S. home sales dropped 20.2% year-over-year in July. The national average mortgage rate on a 30-year fixed loan is around 5.5%, up from 3% at the beginning of the year.
Berkshire Hathaway Inc (NYSE: BRK-A) (NYSE: BRK-B) filed its quarterly 13F form on Monday disclosing all the investment moves its legendary CEO Warren Buffett made in the second quarter. Buffett added to large stakes in Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY), Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) and Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) reduced his investments in General Motors Company (NYSE:GM) and Kroger Co (NYSE:KR) and exited a position in Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE:VZ).
Fleet Of Foot: Shares of athletic footwear retailer Foot Locker, Inc. (NYSE:FL) traded higher by 20% on Friday after the company reported a second-quarter earnings beat and announced a new CEO.
In the week ahead, second-quarter earnings season rolls on with reports from Macy's Inc (NYSE:M) and Xpeng Inc - ADR (NYSE:XPEV) on Tuesday, NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) on Wednesday and Peloton Interactive Inc (NASDAQ:PTON) on Thursday.
Excluding the energy sector, S&P 500 earnings are down 4% year-over-year 500成长ETF in the second quarter, according to FactSet.
Economic Numbers: In the week ahead, investors will get key economic updates on Monday when the People's Bank of China announces its latest interest rate decision and on Friday when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers a speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Invesco S&P 500 Revenue ETF (NYSEARCA:RWL) Shares Acquired by Envestnet Asset Management Inc.
Envestnet Asset Management Inc. lifted its holdings in shares of Invesco S&P 500 Revenue ETF (NYSEARCA:RWL – Get Rating) by 5.5% during the 1st quarter, Holdings Channel.com reports. The firm owned 21,387 shares of the company’s stock after acquiring an additional 1,123 shares during the period. Envestnet Asset Management Inc.’s holdings in Invesco S&P 500 Revenue ETF were worth $1,725,000 at the end of the most recent quarter.
Several other hedge funds have also made changes to their positions in the business. Rise Advisors LLC acquired a new position in Invesco S&P 500 Revenue ETF in the fourth quarter valued at $27,000. Sargent Bickham Lagudis LLC acquired a new position in Invesco S&P 500 Revenue 500成长ETF ETF in the first quarter valued at $52,000. Key 500成长ETF Client Fiduciary Advisors LLC acquired a new position in Invesco S&P 500 Revenue ETF in the fourth 500成长ETF quarter valued at $304,000. HighTower Advisors LLC boosted its holdings in Invesco S&P 500 Revenue ETF by 46.7% in the fourth quarter. HighTower Advisors LLC now owns 4,787 shares of the company’s stock valued at $383,000 after acquiring an additional 1,524 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Capital Analysts LLC boosted its holdings in Invesco S&P 500 Revenue ETF by 4.3% in the fourth quarter. Capital Analysts LLC now owns 4,800 shares of the company’s stock valued at $384,000 after acquiring an additional 200 shares during the last quarter.
Invesco S&P 500 500成长ETF Revenue ETF Trading Down 0.9 %
Shares of Invesco S&P 500 Revenue ETF stock opened at $78.07 on 500成长ETF Friday. Invesco S&P 500 Revenue ETF has a twelve month low of $67.74 and a twelve month 500成长ETF high of $82.68. The business’s fifty day moving average price is $72.87 and its 200 day 500成长ETF moving average price is $76.20.
Invesco S&P 500 Revenue ETF Profile
- Bear Market Game Plan!
RevenueShares Large Cap ETF (the Fund) seeks to achieve its investment objective of outperforming the total return performance of the S&P 500 Index (S&P 500) by investing in the 500成长ETF constituent securities of the S&P 500 in the same proportions as the RevenueShares Large Cap Index. The Fund consists of the same constituent securities as the S&P 500.
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Want to see what other hedge funds are holding RWL? Visit HoldingsChannel.com to get the latest 13F filings and insider trades for Invesco S&P 500 Revenue ETF (NYSEARCA:RWL – Get Rating).
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